Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.018550 0.021012 0.023684 0.026798 0.030328 0.034209 0.038800
2025-08-03 0.014423 0.017751 0.021672 0.026637 0.032762 0.040080 0.049503
2025-08-10 0.012178 0.015863 0.020457 0.026613 0.034661 0.044846 0.058752
2025-08-17 0.010426 0.014223 0.019180 0.026139 0.035678 0.048334 0.066462
2025-08-24 0.009363 0.013296 0.018639 0.026449 0.037608 0.053033 0.076076
2025-08-31 0.008359 0.012301 0.017852 0.026263 0.038732 0.056615 0.084354
2025-09-07 0.007755 0.011792 0.017666 0.026866 0.040976 0.061907 0.095522
2025-09-14 0.006866 0.010758 0.016592 0.026009 0.040907 0.063705 0.101502
2025-09-21 0.006235 0.010045 0.015921 0.025677 0.041570 0.066608 0.109381
2025-09-28 0.005589 0.009244 0.015028 0.024893 0.041408 0.068146 0.115128
2025-10-05 0.005385 0.009135 0.015223 0.025877 0.044192 0.074642 0.129630
2025-10-12 0.005130 0.008914 0.015206 0.026490 0.046385 0.080308 0.143184
2025-10-19 0.004912 0.008744 0.015273 0.027273 0.048976 0.086935 0.159166
2025-10-26 0.004551 0.008292 0.014815 0.027092 0.049845 0.090627 0.170223
2025-11-02 0.004252 0.007922 0.014467 0.027068 0.050979 0.094861 0.182626
2025-11-09 0.003918 0.007456 0.013901 0.026586 0.051203 0.097415 0.192031
2025-11-16 0.003723 0.007235 0.013768 0.026902 0.052962 0.102978 0.207770
2025-11-23 0.003481 0.006901 0.013392 0.026713 0.053708 0.106637 0.220014
2025-11-30 0.003356 0.006785 0.013424 0.027326 0.056097 0.113707 0.239841
2025-12-07 0.003073 0.006329 0.012749 0.026454 0.055379 0.114459 0.246504
2025-12-14 0.002872 0.006024 0.012353 0.026117 0.055736 0.117421 0.258118
2025-12-21 0.002642 0.005638 0.011761 0.025319 0.055044 0.118121 0.264833
2025-12-28 0.002602 0.005653 0.012002 0.026320 0.058315 0.127531 0.291782